An administrative data

Reversal of trend or just a hitch on the front of unemployment? The number of applicants registered with the ANPE rose sharply in January 2008: 13,200 unemployed over, +0.7%. The surge puts an end to 34 months of virtually uninterrupted decline. Since March 2005, the number of unemployed registered with the ANPE has steadily decreased, with the sole exception of the month of July 2007 marked by a very slight rise of little significance.


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An administrative data


For the government and the majority, this announcement falls could not be more wrong, to ten days of the first round of municipal elections. Also the Minister for the Economy and Employment, Christine Lagarde rushed from Africa, where she accompanies the President of the Republic, recalled that "since 2007, the decline in the number of jobseekers reached 175000, or 8.4%. He also stresses that "the other indicators are well-oriented," including the number of long-term unemployed, which "continued to retreat significantly (- 1.2%)."

This beautiful optimism is justified? Critics on the reliability of the monthly estimates INSEE led to publish only once per quarter figure of unemployment that meets the standards established by the International Labour Office (see box). The unemployment rate at the end of December 2007 is not yet known. In late September, it stood at 7.9% of the active population, and is expected to decrease further in the fourth quarter, while nearly 60,000 new jobs were recorded.

Moodiness. The figure released yesterday is therefore a mere accident of course, seems to believe Christine Lagarde. Several indicators are unfortunately not as good as those on which the Minister for the Economy and Employment. The first is the age of new entrants to the ANPE. Young people were the first affected in January: in a month, the number of applicants under the age of 25 had risen by 2.1%, compared to 0.5% for 25-49 year-olds, and 0.2% for 50 years and older. In addition, the main cause of unemployment entry is the end of fixed-term contracts (CDD) or temporary missions. Companies tackle the year 2008 by falling back on employees in place. The job market in January reflects sluggish business leaders, linked to the stock market crisis and the growth prospects for the least uncertain.

Inversion. It is therefore difficult to see in this significant increase in enrolment at the ANPE just an accident statistics. Logically, unemployment back because companies have good reason not to hire her. The next few months perhaps will correct this wrong number. Otherwise, the government may have to manage, in addition to the discontent on the purchasing power, reversing more or less lasting solution to the unemployment curve.