bull and bear eurovs doller
The euro has registered a new record against the dollar and is currently traded at more than $ 1.52 against the euro. In an interview with Reuters, Pierre-Antoine Dusoulier, president of Cambiste.com, talks about the causes and consequences of this new bout of weakness of the dollar.
FC: The dollar has exceeded the 1.50 dollar against the euro, expecting sure that the dollar reaches such a level?
PA D: This new bout of weakness of the dollar is not a surprise, since the euro has continued to appreciate against the dollar since 2003 and 2005.
Several factors have helped propel the dollar to peaks including the proper figure of the Ifo or the speech by Fed chairman who has made his uncertainties about a resumption of growth in the United States.
FC: More generally, how can we explain such an appreciation of the euro against the dollar?
PA D: A combination of several factors both macro economic and technical plays for an appreciation of the euro against the dollar. The economic picture is very bleak for the United States or the American crisis does not appear to be spread to the euro zone. In addition, the interest rate differential advantage now to the European currency. In addition, the emerging countries are increasingly preferred the detention of currency reserves in euro rather than the dollar, which undoubtedly contributes to an appreciation of the single currency.
The speculative factor is also involved in this movement rise of the euro against the dollar. Indeed, operators are increasingly likely to consider currencies as an asset class in their own right, and proceed to the reallocation of assets in the dollar to the euro as with traditional asset.
FC: What is the impact of the weak dollar on European industry?
PA D: There is often a tendency to overstate the impact of a strong euro on European industrial fabric. A strong currency also has interests in particular for importers who see their production costs decrease or we have more importers than exporters in Europe. The exchange intra euro zone is predominant on the old continent.
FC: Exceeding the psychological threshold of $ 1.50 against the euro promote Does joint action by the central banks?
PA D: The thresholds are psychological advantage taken into consideration by speculators and by the central banks ...
Moreover, concerted action by central banks does not always work. It is important that those involved were convinced of the effectiveness of these measures so that they are implemented and they generally act like self-fulfilling prophecies.
Since 2001 2003 following an intervention by the central banks, which had reduced the exchange rate of 1.3 dollar to 1.18 dollar against the euro. However, the euro resumed its march forward in the future ...
FC: What are your prospects for the coming months? And in the longer term?
PA D: In the short term, we expect a small correction of the single currency. In the long term however, the euro should, we believe, continue to appreciate against the dollar. We do not see any sign of weakness of the euro at both fundamental and technical. Thus, the 1.55 dollar threshold for a euro could be reached this summer and the helm of 1.60 may be exceeded before the end of the year.
Interviewed by Mathilde Golla.
FC: The dollar has exceeded the 1.50 dollar against the euro, expecting sure that the dollar reaches such a level?
PA D: This new bout of weakness of the dollar is not a surprise, since the euro has continued to appreciate against the dollar since 2003 and 2005.
Several factors have helped propel the dollar to peaks including the proper figure of the Ifo or the speech by Fed chairman who has made his uncertainties about a resumption of growth in the United States.
FC: More generally, how can we explain such an appreciation of the euro against the dollar?
PA D: A combination of several factors both macro economic and technical plays for an appreciation of the euro against the dollar. The economic picture is very bleak for the United States or the American crisis does not appear to be spread to the euro zone. In addition, the interest rate differential advantage now to the European currency. In addition, the emerging countries are increasingly preferred the detention of currency reserves in euro rather than the dollar, which undoubtedly contributes to an appreciation of the single currency.
The speculative factor is also involved in this movement rise of the euro against the dollar. Indeed, operators are increasingly likely to consider currencies as an asset class in their own right, and proceed to the reallocation of assets in the dollar to the euro as with traditional asset.
FC: What is the impact of the weak dollar on European industry?
PA D: There is often a tendency to overstate the impact of a strong euro on European industrial fabric. A strong currency also has interests in particular for importers who see their production costs decrease or we have more importers than exporters in Europe. The exchange intra euro zone is predominant on the old continent.
FC: Exceeding the psychological threshold of $ 1.50 against the euro promote Does joint action by the central banks?
PA D: The thresholds are psychological advantage taken into consideration by speculators and by the central banks ...
Moreover, concerted action by central banks does not always work. It is important that those involved were convinced of the effectiveness of these measures so that they are implemented and they generally act like self-fulfilling prophecies.
Since 2001 2003 following an intervention by the central banks, which had reduced the exchange rate of 1.3 dollar to 1.18 dollar against the euro. However, the euro resumed its march forward in the future ...
FC: What are your prospects for the coming months? And in the longer term?
PA D: In the short term, we expect a small correction of the single currency. In the long term however, the euro should, we believe, continue to appreciate against the dollar. We do not see any sign of weakness of the euro at both fundamental and technical. Thus, the 1.55 dollar threshold for a euro could be reached this summer and the helm of 1.60 may be exceeded before the end of the year.
Interviewed by Mathilde Golla.
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11:49 AM
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