euro
- The euro is expected to remain firm around $ 1.50 on the horizon of the next three months and positions of the monetary and financial authorities to stem its rise is more likely that intervention by central banks, according to a monthly survey Reuters.
The 62 changes strategists interviewed in connection with this investigation continues, averaged over one euro to $ 1.52 on the horizon of one month and $ 1.49 in three months, while fears of a recession in the United States, United continued to weigh on the dollar.
The strategists have been revised upwards their forecast on the euro / dollar rate as the single European currency went into records of records against the greenback crossing the threshold of $ 1.50.
Only 25 of the 64 strategists surveyed last month predicted that the euro would reach that threshold within six months as they are now about 54 to 62 think. The prospect of a sharp drop in its key interest rates by the Federal Reserve on March 18 should reinforce this scenario.
"The euro / dollar should keep a bullish bias in the short term while the scenario of a recession in the United States continues to prevail and that the Fed should continue declining interest rates," said Carole Laulhere of the General Society .
The recent appreciation of the euro led the monetary and financial officials in Europe to respond, the president of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet breaking even with his habit of not making comments outside of press conferences to emphasize that announced American authorities are in favour of a strong dollar.
The strategists believe that changes of position of this kind is more likely that a concerted intervention by central banks, which 34 of them do not attribute a probability of 20%.
They believe that the euro will reach $ 1.55 before becoming a serious concern for large Finance.
"The question is only the level but the speed with which it is achieved. A threshold of 1.54 dollar against the euro by mid-March result in a position even stronger from the ECB, "said Ashraf Laidi CMC Markets.
The strategists continue to forecast a decline of the euro in the second half with a goal to $ 1.45 in six months and $ 1.40 in a year, forecasts that have not changed since four months.
Expectations about the yen were revised even more radical this month while débouclages massive operation "carry trade" drove the Japanese currency to a higher than three years against the dollar.
The strategists do not expect a continued rise that the Japanese currency would pass under the threshold of 100 yen to the dollar, as was the case in late 1995. They are only six to think that such a level would be reached within six months and assign a 30% probability of an intervention by the Bank of Japan whether this case should be realized.
The 62 changes strategists interviewed in connection with this investigation continues, averaged over one euro to $ 1.52 on the horizon of one month and $ 1.49 in three months, while fears of a recession in the United States, United continued to weigh on the dollar.
The strategists have been revised upwards their forecast on the euro / dollar rate as the single European currency went into records of records against the greenback crossing the threshold of $ 1.50.
Only 25 of the 64 strategists surveyed last month predicted that the euro would reach that threshold within six months as they are now about 54 to 62 think. The prospect of a sharp drop in its key interest rates by the Federal Reserve on March 18 should reinforce this scenario.
"The euro / dollar should keep a bullish bias in the short term while the scenario of a recession in the United States continues to prevail and that the Fed should continue declining interest rates," said Carole Laulhere of the General Society .
The recent appreciation of the euro led the monetary and financial officials in Europe to respond, the president of the European Central Bank Jean-Claude Trichet breaking even with his habit of not making comments outside of press conferences to emphasize that announced American authorities are in favour of a strong dollar.
The strategists believe that changes of position of this kind is more likely that a concerted intervention by central banks, which 34 of them do not attribute a probability of 20%.
They believe that the euro will reach $ 1.55 before becoming a serious concern for large Finance.
"The question is only the level but the speed with which it is achieved. A threshold of 1.54 dollar against the euro by mid-March result in a position even stronger from the ECB, "said Ashraf Laidi CMC Markets.
The strategists continue to forecast a decline of the euro in the second half with a goal to $ 1.45 in six months and $ 1.40 in a year, forecasts that have not changed since four months.
Expectations about the yen were revised even more radical this month while débouclages massive operation "carry trade" drove the Japanese currency to a higher than three years against the dollar.
The strategists do not expect a continued rise that the Japanese currency would pass under the threshold of 100 yen to the dollar, as was the case in late 1995. They are only six to think that such a level would be reached within six months and assign a 30% probability of an intervention by the Bank of Japan whether this case should be realized.
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1:12 PM
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