Wednesday, March 5, 2008

The OPEC should not change its oil production

OPEC ministers decided Wednesday to leave unchanged its production, explaining that if oil is again at unprecedented levels was due to factors over which they have no control.

The American light crude reached a record high of 103.95 dollars per barrel on Monday and was again above the threshold of $ 100 on Wednesday.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said for several weeks that the soaring price of oil is due to factors that it can not control, including the weakness of the dollar and speculation, and not the inadequacy of its extractions.

In Washington, however, increased even symbolic of the production of OPEC may be sufficient to halt the rise in the barrel.

Most OPEC ministers wanted to maintain production at its current level, and a minority even called for a reduction in quotas to prevent a "bottleneck" in the market. At the conclusion of discussions that have not lasted two hours, delegates from OPEC told Reuters that the group had decided the status quo.

The Saudi Minister of Petroleum Ali al Naïmi, had previously said it saw no need to change the volume of production because the fundamentals of the oil market are stable and healthy "and attributed the outbreak to an" enormous speculation " , said Tuesday the newspaper al-Hayat, published in London.

"This speculation has no connection with the fundamentals of a stable market that needs no intervention," says Naïmi, the most influential player in OPEC.

For the president of the organization Chakib Khelil and other ministers of the oil cartel, inventory levels are expected to increase during the second quarter, while consumption traditionally declines at the end of winter.

Khelil added that the seasonal decline in demand could be more pronounced because of the impact of the global economic slowdown.

The Iranian Minister of Petroleum, Gholamhossein Nozari, had also said Wednesday that OPEC would leave its output unchanged.

A "mistake" TO BUSH

The American president, George W. Bush does not see the situation from the same angle: in his view, the ministers of OPEC had committed a "mistake" by ignoring the impact of record high oil prices on the American economy.

"I think it's a mistake to let the economy of your biggest customer (...) slow because of high energy prices," he said Tuesday after a meeting with King Abdallah of Jordan at the White House, adopting an unusually strong tone.

In Washington, OPEC should increase its production by 300,000 to 500,000 barrels per day (bpd).

That would increase by 1.5% the total output of the organization, which has extracted 32.23 million bpd in January, according to statistics from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) in the USA.

Among the 13 members of OPEC are loyal allies of the United States, such as Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Qatar but also fierce adversaries such as Iran and Venezuela.

Irrespective of any formal decision by the cartel to its production, some members of OPEC may also adjust their level discreetly

Saudi Arabia and regularly pump about 9.2 million bpd over the past several months, nearly 300,000 bpd more than its official target set by OPEC, said Wednesday a delegate of the cartel.

The OPEC, which produces more than a third of the world's oil, would reconsider its production level in Rome on 20-22 April, at the meetings between producers and consumer countries.

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